OECD Forecast: Brunei's GDP Forecasted Average 1.6% 2015 to 2019
KOO JIN SHEN
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN, Monday, November 17, 2014 - BRUNEI’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is predicted to be the lowest among ASEAN member countries for the period of 2015 - 2019, a report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) stated.
According to the OECD’S Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India, Brunei’s GDP is expected to grow an average of 1.6 per cent annually from 2015 to 2019. This is an increase from 0.9 per cent growth measured between 2011 and 2013.
In comparison, for the same 2015 - 2019 period, Myanmar is expected to grow at 7.8 per cent a year, Indonesia at 6.0 per cent, Malaysia at 5.6 per cent, Thailand at 4.1 per cent and Vietnam at 5.7 per cent, Philippines at 6.2 per cent.
Cambodia and Laos are forcasted to grow at 7.1 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively.
The second slowest growth is Singapore at 3.5 per cent. On average, the ASEAN-10 countries are expected to have a 5.6 per cent growth in GDP per annum during this period, up from 5.4 in between 2011 to 2013.
China is projected to be growing at 6.8 per cent in 2015 to 2019, India at 6.7 per cent.
Economic growth prospects are stable for Brunei Darussalam and Singapore. However, the report said that Brunei’s growth performance will depend on the energy sector and the volatility of oil and gas prices.
For Singapore, smooth economic transformation in healthcare and social services and effective land use will be challenges for the Singaporean economy.
According to the report, Malaysia’s strong demand in the domestic market supported by the rise of the middle class.
Malaysia’s growing export-oriented sector will remain resilient despite still weak demand in OECD economies, the report said.
“Indonesia’s economy will be supported by robust domestic demand and expectations of reform - with the Jokowi administration possibly rationalising fuel subsidy. Another economy driven by domestic demand, strongly supported by remittances from overseas and political stability is the Philippines where growth is expected to be favourable in the Medium term,” the report read.
Thailand’s political unrest is highlighted in the report to adversely affect growth prospects in the near future, noting that consumer and investor confidence, along with trade performance has weakened due to uncertainty.
The report noted that rapid growth expected for Cambodia and Laos will come from improvement in the agriculture sector and the business environment. For Myanmar, the report said there was rapid progress in many areas and this will keep it on a favourable path in the medium term.
The growth Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar will affect the speed of the ASEAN integration.
The OECD report said that due to this, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are expected to become the new centres of growth in ASEAN.
The Brunei Times